A friend of mine observed once that he was
born while Hosni Mubarak was president, graduated from college and got his
first job during his reign, met his wife-to-be, married her and fathered his
children under Mubarak’s rule and fully expected to die, and perhaps even (he
added only half-jokingly) to be resurrected while Hosni or some younger Mubarak
sat in Egypt’s White House.
But that’s all changed and in a mere 16
weeks Egyptians will, for the first time ever, elect as their president Aboul Fotouh
or Amr Moussa or Mohamed
Selim el Awa or
Hazem Salah Abu Ismail or Ahmed
Shafik or maybe even Hamdeen
Sabahy. In the past,
Egypt’s presidential choices were limited via referendum to “Mubarak” and “Not
Mubarak.” This time around Egyptians have a reasonably broad spectrum of
candidates to select from. This fact alone is enough to
inspire hope.
But Egypt’s future president will have to contend with and manage
such a long and complex list of ailments, from the economy and security to
poverty and corruption; he will have to deal with a
high level of expectations from revolutionaries, Islamists, liberals, local and
international business communities as well as average Egyptians; and he(/she)
will have to manage such a wide range of regional and international issues that
it would be unreasonable to expect him(/her) to make much of an impact on any
of them. I would probably be more realistic to hope that by the end of his(/her)
term Egypt will have positioned itselffor success in the next presidential
elections.
The truth, however, is that the issue of
whoever becomes Egypt’s next president represents, at best, just a quarter of the challenges
the country is currently facing. At least three other variables will have an
equal, if not greater, impact on whether and how Egypt’s revolutionary dreams
of social justice, poverty eradication and ending the twin evils of military
dictatorship and the police state are fulfilled. These three variables are:
·
The system
of government – whether it should be presidential, parliamentary or somewhere
in between.
·
Elements
of the election process itself
·
The
relationship between the president and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF)
Since the collapse of the monarchy back in
1952, Egypt has operated under a presidential system, with practically all
power concentrated in the hands of the state’s chief executive himself. The
list of powers and titles held by the president is formidable. Many Egyptians,
including perhaps, understandably, the Islamist majority in parliament, believe
this should change and that the powers should be shared between the president
and parliament to avoid over-concentration of power in a single branch of
government. It is unclear at this stage whether that will be the case. This,
along with the formation of acommittee charged with drafting a new
constitution which may enshrine the new power-split, certainly represents one
of the upcoming battles on the Egyptian political scene.
The specific powers of the president will be
at least as important as his persona will be. Or, as one political pundit put it: It’s is
somewhat strange to be “hiring” a president before having a job description for
him(/her). Will the president appoint the cabinet? Will he be the commander in chief
of the Armed Forces? Will he have the right to dissolve parliament? These
questions appear to be the subject of intense negotiations between SCAF and the
parliament. The answers will have crucial impact on Egypt’s political future.
No less important is the process of
electing the president. What Egyptians do and how they do it this time around
is likely to set the future standard. Several elements in this process are neither
regulated nor defined.
Currently there are no clear rules on how
campaign money is raised, spent or capped. There’s never been a need for such rules.
Mubarak spent what he wanted on advertising himself and, besides, there was
never any competition. It is unclear whether such rules will be announced or
whether candidates will be allowed to obtain and spend any amounts of money
from any source and on any activity throughout their campaign.
Additionally, none of the existing
candidates was fielded through an existing political party. In other words, voters
will have no way of learning of a candidate’s platform and philosophy except
from scripted TV talk shows. There is no mechanism for presidential debates
between candidates as a way of allowing voters some insight into the their positions
regarding various issues. In essence, Egyptians are expected to vote for
candidates based on how well they do with this or that talk show host.
Media time is yet another unregulated
electoral process. Whether state TV will offer equal air time and equal spots
to all candidates remains to be seen. Given the lack of forums for
candidate-voter interaction, State TV time is key.
These elements will all create biases for
and against individual candidates, and some form of process needs to defined to
ensure that the elections are indeed fair, free and transparent.
Finally, it is as yet unclear what exactly
the position of the SCAF will be in a future Egypt. All the rhetoric points
towards them removing themselves from the levers of power once the next
president has been elected. But being in power officially is one thing and
pulling strings is another. The SCAF’s multi-billion business empire and
traditionally secret budgets, their historical role as the real power-brokers
of the country, their close ties to the American military and the fact that
every president Egypt has ever had has come from the military mean that it
would be naive to expect the SCAF’s complete and immediate withdrawal from
political life.
Whoever the next president is, he(/she)
will have to deal with the army and its role in running Egypt, if not at the
steering wheel then certainly from the back seat yelling instructions.
The size and complexity of the tasks at
hand, the split of power between the presidential palace and legislative
chambers, the way Egypt’s elections are
regulated and the relationship between president and the SCAF – aren’t these the issues that would need to
be resolved before Egyptians head to the ballot box?
